Anthropic, S-1 dosyasını sundu ve kripto para suçluları şirketin fiyatını zaten 1,9 trilyon dolara yakın olarak belirlemişti.

Anthropic made its IPO paperwork public on Monday, and the most interesting thing in it is a blank. The S-1 has no price range and no share count. The $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion valuation everyone is quoting comes from investors speaking to the Financial Times, not from the filing. A few weeks ago the chatter was closer to $2 trillion.

What the document does contain is plenty. Anthropic wants to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the underwriting syndicate. Revenue for the first half of 2026 came to $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier. The headline net loss is $80.7 billion, but about $72.4 billion of that is a non-cash charge for revaluing convertible notes and SAFEs as the company's own valuation climbed. The operating loss was $693 million, and adjusted operating income was positive at $1.6 billion. The Wall Street Journal has reported a target debut in the week of Nov. 16, raising $100 billion or more.

Crypto Priced It First

Crypto traders did not wait for the paperwork. Anthropic perpetual futures have traded for weeks across about a dozen venues, including Binance and Hyperliquid, where a HIP-3 market run by Entropy has been live since at least late August. Covalent flagged $8.35 million in single-day volume on that market on Aug. 26, when Anthropic was still a private company with no public filing.

Monday's reaction was a small lesson in how these markets behave. According to CoinDesk, the Hyperliquid ANTH contract jumped to about $1,980 around the 9 a.m. ET filing time, then dropped roughly 6% to about $1,857 within minutes. Across Oct. 25 and 26, Binance's contract hovered near $1,874. Bitcoin.com News translates that into an implied valuation of about $1.87 trillion, using an assumed share count of roughly one billion. So the dollar figure on the screen is a valuation in disguise, not a share price.

That is above the top of the FT range. DefiLlama's aggregated pre-IPO estimate sits lower at $1.61 trillion, which means two crypto-native yardsticks for the same unlisted company are about $260 billion apart. On Hyperliquid, ANTH-USDC saw roughly $14.1 million in 24-hour volume and $49 million in open interest, according to Crypto Times. Set that against a company people are pricing in the trillions and it looks small.

Trade.xyz had been waiting for this day. Its ANT market is quoted per share rather than as an implied company value, a design that Talos noted kept it on the sidelines until a public S-1 existed. The contract went live Monday with a $125 reference price, 10x maximum leverage and a plus or minus 50% discovery band, which TokenPost says Trade.xyz describes as a starting point, not a forecast or an IPO price. Trade.xyz lists Nov. 20 as the anticipated listing date and says the contract converts to a standard XYZ perpetual once the stock trades. It told the SEC its markets are unavailable to US persons.

Polymarket Is Getting Less Greedy

Polymarket's closing market cap contracts have drawn about $2.4 million in volume. The $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion bracket leads at 26%, the $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion bracket sits at 21%, and $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion has roughly 17%. Traders put just 4% on no IPO by the end of 2027.

The drift is the interesting part. In mid-September Polymarket posted a 66% chance that Anthropic closes its first day above $2 trillion. Adding up the upper brackets today gives about 42%, per Yahoo Finance. Prediction markets are sliding toward the FT range while the perps stay above it, and I would not treat either as a verdict.

None of This Is Anthropic Stock

The perps carry funding payments that real shareholders never pay, and they confer no equity or IPO allocation. Anthropic has also been blunt about the on-chain workarounds. In May it updated its investor warning to say third-party tokenized shares, SPVs and forward contracts are void and will not be recognized. Yahoo Finance reported that PreStocks' tokenized Anthropic shares fell nearly 50% afterward.

The warning has not stopped the marketing. On Monday The Defiant noted that Base was promoting tokenized Anthropic shares without naming an issuer or a token contract.

The registration statement also has not become effective, so no shares can be sold yet. The next real data point is an amended S-1 with a price range and share count. Until that lands, every number in this story, including the $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion range, is an expectation.